{"id":898,"date":"2009-06-29T08:51:51","date_gmt":"2009-06-29T15:51:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.harmonicminer.com\/wordpress\/2009\/06\/29\/sometimes-the-crystal-ball-works\/"},"modified":"2009-06-29T08:51:54","modified_gmt":"2009-06-29T15:51:54","slug":"sometimes-the-crystal-ball-works","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.harmonicminer.com\/wordpress\/2009\/06\/29\/sometimes-the-crystal-ball-works\/","title":{"rendered":"Sometimes the Crystal Ball works"},"content":{"rendered":"

Read the following, and understand that it was written SEVEN YEARS AGO by Reuel Marc Gerecht<\/a>. This was before the Iraq insurgency, before Iraqi elections, before the the surge, before any of it.<\/p>\n

Much interesting analysis at the link above, all worth reading:<\/p>\n

If the United States stays in Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussein and his Baathist regime, and ushers in some type of a federal, democratic system, the repercussions throughout the region could be transformative. Popular discontent in Iran tends to heat up when U.S. soldiers get close to the Islamic Republic. An American invasion could possibly provoke riots in Iran–simultaneous uprisings in major cities that would simply be beyond the scope of regime-loyal specialized riot-control units. The army or the Revolutionary Guard Corps would have to be pulled into service in large numbers, and that’s when things could get interesting. The clerical regime fears big street confrontations, afraid that it cannot rely on the loyalty of either the army or the Guard Corps.<\/p>\n

And if an American invasion doesn’t provoke urban unrest, the creation of a democratic Iraq probably will. Iraq’s majority Shiite population, who will inevitably lead their country in a democratic state, will start to talk to their Shiite brethren over the Iran-Iraq border. The collective Iranian conversation about American-aided democracy in Iraq will be brutal for the mullahs (which is why the Bush administration should prepare itself for Iranian mischief in Iraq’s politics once Tehran determines that the Bush administration is indeed serious about ensuring a democratic triumph in Baghdad). The Bush administration should, of course, quickly and loudly support any demonstrators who hit the streets in Iran. America’s approval will not be the kiss of death for the brave dissidents who challenge the regime’s armed defenders. On the contrary, such psychological support could prove critical to those trying to show to the people that the die is now decisively cast against the regime.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

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